6.2 Next-phase Possibility Design: Changes regarding Arrears six.2.step 1 Security and you can housing market return Brand new twice-lead to hypothesis predicts the standard of bad equity is the main determinant regarding whether or not a loan for the arrears changes to help you foreclosures. Consistent with Hypothesis C, design prices advise that the chances of finance transitioning into foreclosure is actually growing on the level of negative equity. Meanwhile, the probability of money healing otherwise completely paying down declines for finance that have bad equity. Money that will be profoundly in the negative collateral (on section regarding typing arrears) remain five to 8 times because planning to changeover so you’re able to property foreclosure due to the fact that loan to the average LVR (Shape twelve). The latest magnitudes of those issues percentages are bigger than on earliest phase performance. There are no line of thresholds around which finance changeover so you’re able to foreclosures, prior to global facts that suggests that individuals has heterogeneous foreclosures will cost you and you will houses speed standards (Guiso et al 2013; Bhutta et al 2017).